Liverpool v Man City headlines 11 October: 126 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

126 games across 43 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

The day centres on Liverpool against Manchester City at Anfield, where City lead the table on 15 points to the hosts' 9 and arrive on a run of six straight wins.

Liverpool receive Manchester City

Liverpool33.5%vManchester City40.9%Man City to win · 40.9%

Manchester City enter as marginal favourites on 40.9 per cent, ahead of a 33.5 per cent chance for Liverpool and 25.6 per cent for a draw. Expected goals sit at 1.2 for the home side and 1.7 for City, pointing to a 1-2 scoreline as the single most probable outcome. The projection gives a 55.8 per cent lean to over 2.5 goals and 59.1 per cent to both sides scoring.

Liverpool's last five results read three wins and two draws, while City have five wins. The sides have split their previous four meetings, each winning two, with an average of 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in one of those four.

NFL London and domestic fixtures sit near even

Jacksonville Jaguars54%vPhiladelphia Eagles40%Jaguars to win · 54%

Jacksonville Jaguars host Philadelphia Eagles at 13:30 UTC and hold a 54 per cent probability as slight favourites. The Jaguars stand second in their standings on a 3-1 record.

New Orleans Saints face Minnesota Vikings at 17:00 UTC with the Saints on 48.7 per cent against a Vikings side that has won four in a row. New York Jets meet Cleveland Browns in another 17:00 UTC game, where the Jets sit at 49.4 per cent despite three straight losses.

Los Angeles Chargers visit Denver Broncos at 20:05 UTC on 49.4 per cent, while Seattle Seahawks host San Francisco 49ers at 20:25 UTC on 53.9 per cent as slight favourites.

Model edges stand out in several leagues

Real Sociedad carry a 71.5 per cent probability against Deportivo, a strong favourite that exceeds the market price by 9.2 points. Besiktas sit at 88 per cent versus Kocaelispor, 8.4 points clear of the market. Jaguares de Córdoba host Deportes Tolima, where Tolima is projected at 68.6 per cent.

Tokyo Verdy 1969 meet Sanfrecce Hiroshima with Sanfrecce at 71.8 per cent. Mito Hollyhock face Shimizu S-Pulse on a 45.6 per cent projection for Shimizu. FC Utrecht host Willem II at 56.4 per cent for the home side.

Goal and both-teams-to-score leans

Racing Santander against Valencia projects 76.4 per cent to over 2.5 goals on expected goals of 1.9 and 2.1. Gaziantep FK against Çorum FK reaches 74.7 per cent over 2.5, and FC Utrecht against Willem II hits 74.2 per cent over 2.5. San Lorenzo versus Deportivo Riestra leans 89.9 per cent under 2.5 goals, while Mallorca against Las Palmas stands at 82.2 per cent under 2.5. Racing Santander versus Valencia also leads both-teams-to-score at 75.7 per cent.

All remaining games in kick-off order

Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees, Rays 52.5%; China v Singapore, SGP 83.1%; Hong Kong v Saudi Arabia, HKG 62.6%; Arizona State Sun Devils v Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, Arizona St 63.6%; Fresno State Bulldogs v Boise State Broncos, Fresno St 55.5%; América v Monterrey, América 43.9%; Australia Women v Bangladesh Women, AUS-W 96.7%; Las Vegas Aces v Golden State Valkyries, Aces 60.3%; New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream, Liberty 56.2%; Karen Khachanov v Adrian Mannarino, K. Khachanov 61.4%; Ben Shelton v Arthur Gea, B. Shelton 65%; JEF United Ichihara-Chiba v V-Varen Nagasaki, JEF Utd Chiba 39.1%; Canada v Nepal, NEP 70.5%; Alex de Minaur v Rei Sakamoto, A. de Minaur 66.8%; Hubert Hurkacz v Zhou Yi, H. Hurkacz 81%; Bahrain v Mongolia, BHR 95.5%; Bhutan v Qatar, QAT 80.7%; Kuwait v Myanmar, KUW 92.8%; Mito Hollyhock v Shimizu S-Pulse, Shimizu 45.6%; Tokyo Verdy 1969 v Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Sanfreece 71.8%; Francisco Cerundolo v Jakub Mensik, F. Cerundolo 51.9%; Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus, Kawasaki 60.7%; Rebecca Sramkova v Kyoka Okamura, K. Okamura 56.1%; Alexander Bublik v Brandon Nakashima, B. Nakashima 56.7%; Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks, Rockets 63.6%; Alexander Zverev v Quentin Halys, A. Zverev 79.9%; Ayla Aksu v Lucrezia Stefanini, L. Stefanini 64.3%; FC Utrecht v Willem II, FC Utrecht 56.4%; Como v AS Roma, AS Roma 39.7%; Konyaspor v Istanbul Basaksehir, Konyaspor 39.2%; Southampton v Portsmouth, Southampton 54.8%; Motherwell v Celtic, Celtic 67.3%; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Frances Tiafoe, F. Tiafoe 62.1%; Hertha Berlin v SpVgg Greuther Fürth, Hertha 62.8%; St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC, St. Pauli 56.3%; VfL Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld, Bochum 40.6%; Standard Liege v Royal Charleroi SC, Royal Charleroi 46.8%; Zheng Qinwen v Mirra Andreeva, M. Andreeva 54.9%; Elche v Celta Vigo, Celta Vigo 40.7%; FC Andorra v Castellón, Castellón 49.7%; Randers FC v Viborg FF, Viborg 51.5%; Silkeborg IF v AC Horsens, Silkeborg 50.1%; Hammarby IF v Djurgården, Hammarby 58.5%; PEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur, PEC Zwolle 48.3%; Telstar v ADO Den Haag, Telstar 40.2%; SC Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger, SC Rheindorf 53%; TSV Hartberg v Austria Lustenau, TSV Hartberg 44.6%; Fredrikstad v Tromso, Tromso 45.7%; Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest, Nottm Forest 39.4%; Hull City v Everton, Everton 51.7%; Lazio v Monza, Lazio 54.9%; Lecce v Bologna, Bologna 55.1%; Nice v Strasbourg, Nice 41.7%; Pakistan v Sri Lanka, PAK 81%; Aberdeen v St Johnstone, Aberdeen 47.8%; Catanzaro v Mantova, Catanzaro 41.8%; Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK, Gaziantep 38.5%; FC Cologne v Borussia Mönchengladbach, Cologne 42.9%; Jacksonville Jaguars v Philadelphia Eagles, Jaguars 54%; India v West Indies, IND 71.3%; Al Fayha v Al Riyadh, Al Fayha 45.9%; Union St.-Gilloise v OH Leuven, Union SG 85%; Iraklis v Levadiakos, Iraklis 43.4%; Kifisia v Panetolikos, Kifisia 59.1%; Brøndby IF v Lyngby Boldklub, Brøndby 57%; Real Sociedad v Deportivo, Real Sociedad 71.5%; Almería v Leganés, Almería 58.6%; Rio Ave v C.D. Nacional, Rio Ave 39.2%; BK Häcken v Örgryte IS, BK Häcken 80.6%; Excelsior v FC Groningen, FC Groningen 40.2%; United States of America v United Arab Emirates, USA 78.2%; LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna, LASK Linz 51.2%; Aalesund v Sarpsborg FK, Aalesund 37.3%; IK Start v Hamarkameratene, IK Start 52.9%; Stade Rennais v AJ Auxerre, Rennes 66.6%; Padova v Carrarese, Padova 56.8%; Abha v Al Faisaly, Abha 47.4%; Liverpool v Manchester City, Man City 40.9%; SC Freiburg v Schalke 04, Freiburg 55.6%; Everton CD v La Serena, Everton CD 58.7%; Sassuolo v AC Milan, Milan 56.1%; Besiktas v Kocaelispor, Besiktas 88%; Aris v Volos NFC, Aris 67.2%; FC Midtjylland v F.C. København, København 37.1%; Real Betis v Osasuna, Betis 58.4%; Mallorca v Las Palmas, Mallorca 68.2%; KVC Westerlo v Antwerp, Westerlo 45.9%; Benfica v Vitória de Guimaraes, Benfica 73.4%; Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears, Packers 50.6%; Tennessee v Houston, Texans 52.4%; Miami Dolphins v Cincinnati Bengals, Dolphins 53.4%; New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders, Patriots 63.8%; New Orleans Saints v Minnesota Vikings, Saints 48.7%; New York Jets v Cleveland Browns, Jets 49.4%; Pittsburgh Steelers v Indianapolis Colts, Steelers 54.3%; Washington Commanders v New York Giants, Commanders 53.5%; KV Mechelen v Sint-Truidense, Sint-Truidense 51.1%; Lillestrom v Molde, Molde 51.2%; Modena v Hellas Verona, Modena 49.3%; San Lorenzo v Deportivo Riestra, San Lorenzo 36.6%; Olympiacos v Panathinaikos, Olympiacos 43.3%; Al Shabab v Al Taawoun, Al Shabab 41.5%; Coquimbo Unido v Colo Colo, Colo Colo 50.2%; Cagliari v Juventus, Juventus 65.9%; Troyes v Marseille, Marseille 53.8%; Racing Santander v Valencia, Racing 38.4%; Atlético-MG v Santos, Atlético-MG 46%; Cádiz v Sporting Gijón, Cádiz 46.3%; Arouca v Estrela, Arouca 39%; Platense v Argentinos Juniors, Argentinos 43.1%; Rosario Central v Independiente Rivadavia, Rosario Central 47.1%; Los Angeles Chargers v Denver Broncos, Chargers 49.4%; Arizona Cardinals v Detroit Lions, Lions 49.4%; Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks 53.9%; Flamengo v Fluminense, Flamengo 67%; Grêmio v Internacional, Internacional 41%; Palmeiras v Corinthians, Palmeiras 57.2%; Deportes Concepcion v Unión La Calera, Concepcion 45.1%; Washington Capitals v Seattle Kraken, Capitals 56.8%; Jaguares de Córdoba v Deportes Tolima, Tolima 68.6%; New York Rangers v Vancouver Canucks, Rangers 69.1%; Racing Club v Belgrano (Córdoba), Racing 40.7%; Bahia v Mirassol, Bahia 54.7%; Cleveland Cavaliers v Orlando Magic, Cavaliers 59%; St. Louis CITY SC v LA Galaxy, St. Louis 52.8%; Atlético de San Luis v Santos, Atl. San Luis 43%; Charlotte Hornets v Milwaukee Bucks, Hornets 60.4%; Philadelphia Flyers v Carolina Hurricanes, Hurricanes 80%; Deportes Limache v Palestino, Limache 45.1%; Pachuca v Necaxa, Pachuca 50.1%; Boyacá Chicó FC v Cúcuta Deportivo, Chicó FC 48.1%.