Coventry v Newcastle headlines 12 October: 59 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

59 games across 25 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

The Premier League returns after the international break with Coventry City at home to Newcastle United. Our numbers give the visitors the narrowest of advantages in a game where expected goals favour them by a clear margin.

Newcastle carry the projection in the top flight

Coventry City25.8%vNewcastle United49.8%Newcastle to win · 49.8%

Coventry City sit 19th with three points after one win and four losses in their last five. Newcastle United lie 11th with eight points and two wins, two draws and one loss in the same span. The model puts Newcastle at 49.8% to win, with the draw on 24.5% and Coventry on 25.8%. Expected goals sit at 0.5 for the hosts and 2.0 for the visitors, so 0-2 emerges as the most probable scoreline. Both teams to score registers only 36.9%.

Bookmakers price Newcastle around 45%, leaving a 4.8-point gap where the projection sees more in the away side. The total hovers near the 2.5 line without strong lean either way.

Atalanta meet a Venezia side on a long losing run

Atalanta53.3%vVenezia18.3%Atalanta to win · 53.3%

Atalanta sit 11th with six points after three straight defeats. Venezia remain bottom with zero points and seven successive losses. The projection gives Atalanta 53.3% as slight favourites. A 2-0 scoreline appears the likeliest outcome.

Market odds place Atalanta at 60.5%, so the model sees less certainty than the bookmakers in this case. The home side still hold the clearer chance on the numbers.

Real Oviedo face Eibar after seven straight wins for the visitors

Real Oviedo48.7%vEibar27.6%Real Oviedo to win · 48.7%

Real Oviedo lie 10th with 11 points. Eibar top the table with 21 points after seven consecutive victories. The model assigns Real Oviedo 48.7% as a marginal favourite, close to a coin flip, with the draw at 23.7% and Eibar at 27.6%. Expected goals point to an under 2.5 outcome at 66%.

Market pricing gives Real Oviedo 43.5%, creating a 5.2-point gap that marks this as one of the clearer value spots on the card.

Discrepancies across the card

Five matches show gaps of five points or more between model and market. PAOK stand out as strong favourites at 89% against Kalamata. Tenerife receive 45.2% at home to Girona, above the market figure. Burgos appear at 34.7% versus Granada while the projection on Real Oviedo already noted above adds another angle.

Other projected leans

Over 2.5 goals carries 67.5% probability in PAOK against Kalamata and 66.7% in AGF versus Sønderjyske Fodbold. Under 2.5 sits at 68.2% for Lanús against Vélez Sarsfield. Both teams to score reaches its highest mark at 66.4% in KFUM Oslo against Vålerenga.

Remaining fixtures

01:15 UTC China v Saudi Arabia, KSA, 92.8% 01:15 UTC Hong Kong v Maldives, HKG, 90.8% 03:05 UTC Ekaterina Alexandrova v Leylah Fernandez, E. Alexandrova, 51.8% 04:00 UTC Victoria v South Australia, SOA, 50.6% 04:10 UTC Pablo Carreno Busta v Felix Auger-Aliassime, F. Auger-Aliassime, 69.2% 04:10 UTC Learner Tien v Casper Ruud, L. Tien, 56.2% 04:50 UTC Janice Tjen v Oleksandra Oliynykova, J. Tjen, 62.7% 04:55 UTC Clara Tauson v Marie Bouzkova, M. Bouzkova, 66% 05:20 UTC Iva Jovic v Mia Pohankova, A. Bondar, 52% 05:30 UTC Jiri Lehecka v Rafael Jodar, J. Lehecka, 51.8% 05:30 UTC Stefanos Tsitsipas v Taylor Fritz, T. Fritz, 60.1% 06:00 UTC Bhutan v Kuwait, KUW, 79.3% 06:00 UTC Myanmar v Thailand, THA, 72.6% 06:00 UTC Qatar v Mongolia, QAT, 94.3% 06:00 UTC Maria Sakkari v Donna Vekic, M. Sakkari, 58.9% 06:00 UTC Jasmine Paolini v Sara Bejlek, J. Paolini, 50.2% 06:00 UTC Mananchaya Sawangkaew v Magdalena Frech, M. Sawangkaew, 52.2% 07:00 UTC Daniil Medvedev v Dalibor Svrcina, D. Medvedev, 72.2% 07:30 UTC Catherine McNally v Yuliia Starodubtseva, C. McNally, 62.1% 08:30 UTC Arthur Fils v Botic Van De Zandschulp, A. Fils, 70.7% 09:30 UTC Eva Vedder v Francesca Curmi, F. Curmi, 65.5% 09:30 UTC Aran Teixido Garcia v Laura Samson, L. Samson, 69.1% 10:00 UTC Zizou Bergs v Carlos Alcaraz, C. Alcaraz, 90.7% 11:00 UTC Julia Grabher v Deborah Chiesa, J. Grabher, 78.1% 11:00 UTC Jennifer Ruggeri v Elizara Yaneva, E. Yaneva, 64.5% 11:30 UTC Wang Xiyu v Wang Xinyu, W. Xiyu, 52.1% 11:30 UTC Tommy Paul v Valentin Vacherot, T. Paul, 58.5% 12:00 UTC Real Valladolid v Albacete, Valladolid, 53.6% 12:00 UTC Emiliana Arango v Gabriela Knutson, G. Knutson, 67.7% 12:00 UTC Clara Burel v Lina Gjorcheska, C. Burel, 81.1% 12:30 UTC Andrea Lazaro Garcia v Yasmine Kabbaj, A. Lazaro Garcia, 51.1% 13:00 UTC Alexandra Eala v Shi Han, A. Eala, 82% 13:30 UTC Polina Iatcenko v Harmony Tan, P. Iatcenko, 56.2% 13:30 UTC Barbora Palicova v Jazmin Ortenzi, J. Ortenzi, 62.7% 14:15 UTC Burgos v Granada, Burgos, 34.7% 15:00 UTC PAOK v Kalamata, PAOK, 89% 15:00 UTC Linda Klimovicova v Lucie Havlickova, L. Havlickova, 58% 15:00 UTC Leyre Romero Gormaz v Alice Rame, L. Romero Gormaz, 63.9% 16:00 UTC Lisa Pigato v Julia Avdeeva, L. Pigato, 76.7% 17:00 UTC Buffalo Sabres v Florida Panthers, Sabres, 51.2% 17:00 UTC AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold, AGF, 65.6% 17:00 UTC KFUM Oslo v Vålerenga, Valerenga, 46.5% 17:00 UTC IF Elfsborg v Halmstads BK, Elfsborg, 79.9% 17:00 UTC Malmö FF v Kalmar FF, Malmö, 54.5% 17:30 UTC Mona Barthel v Lucia Bronzetti, M. Barthel, 51.8% 18:45 UTC Dijon FCO v Metz, Metz, 46.2% 19:00 UTC Levante v Sevilla, Sevilla, 40.6% 19:00 UTC Coritiba v Botafogo, Botafogo, 40.1% 19:00 UTC Lanús v Vélez Sarsfield, Lanús, 39.6% 19:00 UTC Tenerife v Girona, Girona, 45.2% 19:15 UTC FC Famalicao v Alverca, FC Famalicao, 47.7% 21:00 UTC Milwaukee Brewers v Los Angeles Dodgers, Brewers, 53.4% 21:30 UTC Gimnasia (Mendoza) v Newell's Old Boys, Gimnasia (M), 40.6% 22:30 UTC Chapecoense v Athletico-PR, Athletico-PR, 50.3% 23:00 UTC Atlanta Hawks v Oklahoma City Thunder, Hawks, 53.6% 23:00 UTC Washington Wizards v Brooklyn Nets, Wizards, 56.5% 23:00 UTC New Jersey Devils v Ottawa Senators, Senators, 56% 23:00 UTC New South Wales v Tasmania, NSW, 64.3% 23:30 UTC New York Knicks v Minnesota Timberwolves, Knicks, 58.3%