Atlético v Man United headlines 13 October: 67 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

67 games across 15 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

The Champions League programme features the day's clearest mismatch alongside a tighter contest where the numbers diverge from the odds. Atlético Madrid sit bottom of their section yet enter on four straight wins, while Manchester United hold fourth place after three points from their opening match. The model assigns Atlético 59.2% at home, eight points clear of the 51.2% implied by bookmakers.

Atlético Madrid meet Manchester United

Atlético Madrid59.8%vManchester United22%Atlético to win · 59.8%

Atlético's recent sequence of four wins in five games contrasts with United's one win and three draws across the same span. Expected goals favour the visitors at 3.2 to 0.6, yet the projection still sees Atlético as slight favourites because home advantage and defensive organisation outweigh that gap. Over 2.5 goals sits at 73.1% while both teams to score lands at just 44.3%.

Elo ratings give Atlético a 121-point edge once home advantage is included. The model therefore rates the hosts more strongly than the market, which prices them closer to a coin flip. Atlético's 4-1-0 run in the last five games supplies the recent form the projection weights, while United's 1-3-1 record leaves less margin for error away from home.

Bayern and Inter lead the strong favourites

Viking FK2.9%vBayern Munich86.5%Bayern to win · 86.5%

Viking FK arrive on three consecutive wins yet trail Bayern Munich by 86.6 points in the projection. Bayern sit second in the section after three points from their opener, and the model sees little scope for an upset despite Viking's domestic run.

Inter Milan sit 26th with no points but receive 89.8% against Club Brugge, the largest single-game probability of the day. Club Brugge have won three straight but face a side whose defensive record in Europe limits clean-sheet chances for opponents. The eight-point gap between model and market on this fixture marks it as the clearest value selection.

Value stands out on three further lines

The table of largest model-market gaps highlights Internazionale, RB Leipzig and Atlético as the clearest overlays. RB Leipzig receive 68.7% against PSV, seven points above the 60% priced by bookmakers. Atlético's 59.2% sits eight points clear of the 51.2% market line.

Wolverhampton Wanderers receive 76.1% at home to Bolton, five points higher than the 71% implied elsewhere. These discrepancies arise where the projection places more weight on recent defensive records than the market does.

Over 2.5 goals lines dominate the card

Galatasaray against Barcelona carries an 81.3% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by expected goals of 1.2 and 3.2. Lens against Sporting CP reaches 81.1% on expected goals of 2.3 and 2.1, while RB Leipzig against PSV sits at 80% on 1.1 and 3.2. Villarreal against Napoli reverses the pattern, with under 2.5 goals at 67.5%.

Both teams to score reaches its daily peak at 79.3% for Lens against Sporting CP. The projection sees limited value in under 2.5 goals for Wrexham against West Bromwich Albion at 61.3%.

NHL and lower-profile fixtures fill the schedule

Carolina Hurricanes enter at 60.7% against Washington Capitals after five straight wins. New York Rangers sit at 55.7% against Tampa Bay Lightning, who have won four consecutive games. These probabilities sit inside the slight-favourite band and carry the usual variance attached to any result near 55%.

Cricket selections include Pakistan at 82.6% against Sri Lanka and the United States at 68.4% against Namibia. Western Australia receive 64.9% against Queensland in the domestic one-day competition.

Remaining fixtures

Wolverhampton v Bolton, Wolves 76.1% Villarreal v Napoli, Villarreal 45.6% Wrexham v West Brom, Wrexham 41% Slavia Prague v Sabah FK, Slavia Prague 53.7% Rangers v Lightning, Rangers 55.7% Middlesbrough v Stoke, Middlesbrough 53.3% Lens v Sporting CP, Over 2.5 81.1% RB Leipzig v PSV, Over 2.5 80% Arsenal v Lille, Arsenal 87% Viking FK v Bayern, Bayern 86.6% Galatasaray v Barcelona, Barcelona 78.4% Sabah FK v Slavia Prague, Slavia Prague 53.7% Bristol City v Blackburn, Bristol City 48% Burnley v Charlton, Burnley 63.3% Cardiff v Watford, Cardiff 59.9% Millwall v Swansea, Millwall 37.7% Birmingham v Preston, Birmingham 64.4% Stoke v Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough 53.3% Detroit v New Jersey, Red Wings 53.9% Columbus v Florida, Blue Jackets 59% Montreal v Buffalo, Canadiens 56.1% Philadelphia v Seattle, Kraken 85.6% Ottawa v St Louis, Senators 65.1% New York Islanders v Vancouver, Islanders 67.4% Orlando v Cleveland, Magic 55.9% Toronto v New York Knicks, Raptors 55.9% Atlético Bucaramanga v Águilas, Bucaramanga 51.6% Pakistan v Sri Lanka, Pakistan 82.6% USA v Namibia, USA 68.4% North West v Dolphins, Dolphins 64.7% 03:00 Yastremska v Bucsa, Bucsa 55.4% 03:00 Birrell v Volynets, Volynets 56.8% 03:10 Siniakova v Samsonova, Siniakova 50.4% 04:10 de Minaur v Khachanov, de Minaur 60.7% 05:05 Sherif v Chwalinska, Chwalinska 53% 05:10 Guo v Cirstea, Cirstea 89.1% 05:15 Boulter v Shnaider, Shnaider 65.5% 05:15 Putintseva v Sonmez, Putintseva 50.5% 05:30 Gea v Mensik, Gea 53.3% 06:00 Oman v Nepal, Nepal 58.3% 06:00 Western Australia v Queensland, Western Australia 64.9% 06:00 Snigur v Mertens, Mertens 56.9% 06:00 Kasatkina v Ostapenko, Ostapenko 53.4% 06:00 Sakkari v Kostyuk, Kostyuk 71.3% 06:30 Tagger v Bartunkova, Bartunkova 72.7% 07:30 Li v Zheng, Li 57.8% 08:00 Pigossi v Brancaccio, Brancaccio 60.4% 09:00 Basiletti v Hruncakova, Basiletti 60.2% 09:00 Teichmann v Brockmann, Teichmann 67% 09:30 Zidansek v Papamichail, Zidansek 60.2% 10:00 Zaar v Jorge, Jorge 59.2% 10:00 Colmegna v Jones, Jones 70.7% 10:00 Zverev v Bublik, Zverev 74.2% 10:30 Ruzic v Siskova, Ruzic 71.1% 10:30 Kubka v Charaeva, Charaeva 78.4% 11:00 Bencic v Zhang, Krueger 58.3% 11:00 Sobolieva v Mintegi, Mintegi 50.9% 11:30 Zantedeschi v Ferro, Ferro 73.6% 11:30 Kulambayeva v Jorge, Jorge 53.6% 11:30 Hurkacz v Davidovich, Hurkacz 51% 12:00 Cortez v Gorgodze, Gorgodze 66.7% 12:00 Boskovic v Selekhmeteva, Selekhmeteva 63.1% 12:30 Pohankova v Xiyu, Xiyu 53.6% 13:00 Masarova v Akugue, Masarova 62.6% 13:00 Burillo v Morvayova, Burillo 53.1% 13:00 Feistel v Maristany, Maristany 73.2% 13:30 Koevermans v Andreeva, Andreeva 50.4% 15:00 Radivojevic v Kostovic, Kostovic 74% 17:30 Andreescu v Ristic, Andreescu 57.5%