Primeira Liga: Porto and Benfica lead strong favourites

The model identifies FC Porto at 80.7 per cent and Benfica at 87.2 per cent as the two clearest favourites across eight Primeira Liga matches scheduled from 9 to 11 October 2026.

Two sides carry probabilities above 65 per cent this weekend while the other six fixtures sit closer to even. FC Porto host a Maritimo side that has taken just two points from five matches, and Benfica visit Vitória after a mixed run that includes a recent defeat.

Porto set for routine home success

Maritimo6.7%1-2FC Porto75.6%FC Porto to win · 75.6%

FC Porto hold an 80.7 per cent chance of victory, well above the 65 per cent threshold that marks a strong favourite. Their expected goals stand at 2.6 against Maritimo's 0.6, which drives the 60.3 per cent probability on over 2.5 goals and leaves both teams to score at only 40.4 per cent. The 0-2 scoreline is the single most likely outcome.

Maritimo arrive with zero wins in their last five matches and have conceded heavily in recent outings. FC Porto, by contrast, have won all five of their previous games. The 211-point Elo gap reinforces why the projection gives Porto such a clear edge, five points higher than the market's assessment of roughly 75 per cent.

Benfica aim to correct recent slip

Benfica sit at 87.2 per cent to beat Vitória. Their expected goals reach 2.8 against 0.7, producing the highest over 2.5 probability of the round at 68.5 per cent and a most likely 2-0 result. Vitória have collected only five points from their last five matches and sit on a two-game winless run.

Benfica's four wins in five fixtures still leave them with one defeat, yet the underlying numbers remain dominant. The model sees little scope for an upset given the 2.1-goal expected margin.

Santa Clara carry clear away edge

Santa Clara hold 63.2 per cent to win at Casa Pia. The most likely score is 0-1 and over 2.5 goals sits at just 33.8 per cent, pointing to a low-scoring contest. Casa Pia have won only once in five matches while Santa Clara have taken eleven points from the same span.

The projection therefore favours a narrow away success rather than an open game. Casa Pia's home record offers limited resistance according to the data.

Remaining matches

Gil Vicente v Moreirense, Gil Vicente, 52.2% Sporting CP v Braga, Sporting CP, 55.1% Académico de Viseu v Estoril, Académico de Viseu, 38.9% Rio Ave v Nacional, Rio Ave, 46.6% Arouca v Estrela, Arouca, 47.6%