Primeira Liga predictions: every match from 25 October to 26 October 2026

4 Primeira Liga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 2 games the model calls close.

4 Primeira Liga matches are scheduled between Sunday, 25 October 2026 and Monday, 26 October 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Santa Clara against Benfica, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Santa Clara6.8%vBenfica72.1%Benfica to win · 72.1%

Benfica are a solid favourite at 72.1% (draw 21.1%, Santa Clara 6.8%). Expected goals come out at 0.9 for Santa Clara and 1.4 for Benfica, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 58.7%, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 46.6%. On Elo ratings Benfica are the clearly stronger side (169 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Santa Clara WDWWD, Benfica WWWLW (most recent first).

Every fixture

C.D. Nacional v Braga, Sunday, 25 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Braga to win at 64.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 53.3%. Form: Nacional LLLLL, Braga WLLLD. Full preview

Rio Ave v FC Famalicao, Sunday, 25 October 2026 18:00 UTC

FC Famalicao to win at 51.3%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 48.8%. Form: Rio Ave WLDLL, FC Famalicao LWDDD. Full preview

Sporting CP v Académico de Viseu, Sunday, 25 October 2026 20:30 UTC

Sporting CP to win at 75.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 66.8%. Form: Sporting LWWDD, Académico WWWWL. Full preview

Santa Clara v Benfica, Monday, 26 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Benfica to win at 72.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 41.3%. Form: Santa Clara WDWWD, Benfica WWWLW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Primeira Liga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.