Serie A predictions: every match from 16 October to 17 October 2026

4 Serie A fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 1 games the model calls close.

Three of the four Serie A matches due between Friday and Saturday carry clear favourite status in the model, while one stays wide open. The probabilities place heavy weight on the home sides in the headline games, with goal projections adding further texture to the outlook.

Napoli face bottom side Venezia

Venezia12.2%vNapoli67.7%Napoli to win · 67.7%

Napoli enter as a clear favourite at 67.7 per cent. The projection gives them 2.8 expected goals against Venezia’s 0.7, which lines up with the most probable scoreline of 0-2. Over 2.5 goals sits at 67.9 per cent while both teams to score registers 47.1 per cent. The 216-point Elo edge for Napoli underlines the gap, and the model sits 6.9 points above the market price of 60.8 per cent for the home win.

Venezia arrive with no wins and five losses from their last five matches. Napoli’s own recent sequence shows two wins, one draw and two losses. The expected-goals split suggests the visitors will struggle to create, which keeps the both-teams-to-score line near a coin flip despite the high probability of three or more goals.

Inter host Bologna

Inter are a strong favourite at 71.7 per cent. The most likely score is 1-2 and the over 2.5 goals line reaches 63.4 per cent. Bologna’s last five matches produced one win, two draws and two losses, while Inter recorded three wins, one draw and one loss. The difference in recent results and the model’s probability both point to an Inter side expected to control the game and create enough chances to clear the over line.

Roma meet Genoa

Roma hold the highest probability of the weekend at 77 per cent. Their most likely score is 2-0 and over 2.5 goals stands at 56 per cent. Roma’s last five matches contain two wins and three draws with no defeats, whereas Genoa have one win, one draw and three losses. The projection therefore leans toward a controlled home performance that limits Genoa’s opportunities while still carrying a modest chance of a higher-scoring outcome.

Frosinone against Sassuolo

This fixture sits outside the clear-favourite range. Frosinone are projected at 36.3 per cent to win, with the most likely score 2-1 and over 2.5 goals at 57.4 per cent. Frosinone’s last five results read three wins, one draw and one loss; Sassuolo have two wins, two draws and one loss. The numbers therefore describe an open contest in which either side can take points.

Remaining fixtures

Frosinone v Sassuolo, Frosinone 36.3%