Singapore Grand Prix prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli favourite at 27.7%
Win and podium probabilities for every driver at the Singapore Grand Prix, the championship picture and what the grid changes.
The Singapore Grand Prix carries added weight because Andrea Kimi Antonelli sits 84 points clear at the top of the drivers’ standings with four rounds left. Our numbers give the Mercedes driver a 27.7 per cent chance of victory at Marina Bay, the highest single probability in the field yet still short of a dominant position. The projection places his expected finish at third, which reflects both the strength of his recent results and the difficulty of the street circuit.
Recent results shape the outlook
Antonelli’s last two wins came from very different starting spots. He took the Italian Grand Prix from nineteenth on the grid and the Spanish race from second. Those outcomes sit inside a season where the model has identified the winner in eleven of the sixteen completed events once the grid was set. The street layout at Singapore rewards clean air and tyre management, areas where the Mercedes package has shown consistency.
George Russell, Antonelli’s team-mate, holds the second-highest win probability at 15.1 per cent. Russell’s most recent victory came in Azerbaijan from pole, yet his season tally of three wins trails Antonelli’s eight. The pair occupy first and second in the championship and have already secured the constructors’ title for Mercedes with 556 points.
Rivals trail in the model
Max Verstappen’s numbers sit at 12.2 per cent for the win and an expected finish of fifth. Red Bull’s last victory arrived in Bahrain, where Verstappen led home Antonelli and Hamilton. Since then the team has dropped to fourth in the constructors with 298 points, 58 behind McLaren.
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, the Ferrari pair, post win probabilities of 8.0 and 7.5 per cent respectively. Hamilton’s expected finish is sixth, Leclerc’s is 6.1. Their combined 405 points keep Ferrari second in the teams’ table but well adrift of Mercedes.
Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri complete the leading group with win chances of 7.6 and 5.0 per cent. Norris sits fifth in the championship on 188 points, level with Verstappen, while Piastri’s lower probability aligns with his expected finish of 7.6.
What the probabilities imply
The model’s pre-qualifying output shows Antonelli as the single most likely winner, yet the spread across the top eight drivers indicates no driver exceeds a one-in-four chance. Russell’s podium probability of 46.2 per cent is the next highest after Antonelli’s 66.6 per cent. Points finishes remain likely for the top six, all above 88 per cent.
Isack Hadjar’s 5.7 per cent win chance and expected finish of 7.2 give Red Bull a secondary threat, though the team’s recent form has been mixed. The Bahrain result stands as their only victory in the last four races covered.
Remaining schedule
Singapore Grand Prix, Antonelli win, 27.7%