United States Grand Prix prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli favourite at 26.4%

Formula 1 · Published 2026-10-20 · Updated 2026-10-23 07:40 UTC

Win and podium probabilities for every driver at the United States Grand Prix, the championship picture and what the grid changes.

Photo: Liauzh, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

United States Grand Prix, round 18 of the 2026 season · Circuit of The Americas, Austin, United States · race 2026-10-25 19:00:00Z UTC · qualifying 2026-10-24 21:00:00Z UTC

Grid known: no (pre-qualifying model: form and car only)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 26.4%, podium 64.2%, points finish 99.7%, expected finish 3.2
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing): win 14%, podium 42.9%, points finish 97.7%, expected finish 4.5
George Russell (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 12.5%, podium 40.4%, points finish 96.9%, expected finish 4.7
Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari): win 9.4%, podium 28.7%, points finish 92%, expected finish 5.7
Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari): win 8%, podium 25%, points finish 90.2%, expected finish 6.1
Lando Norris (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 7.9%, podium 24.8%, points finish 88.6%, expected finish 6.2
Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing): win 5.5%, podium 18.1%, points finish 77.8%, expected finish 7.5
Oscar Piastri (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 5.2%, podium 17.1%, points finish 78.2%, expected finish 7.5

Championship picture

Championship: P1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli 340 pts (8 wins), Mercedes Formula 1 Team
Championship: P2 George Russell 238 pts (3 wins), Mercedes Formula 1 Team
Championship: P3 Lewis Hamilton 229 pts (1 wins), Scuderia Ferrari
Championship: P4 Max Verstappen 221 pts (2 wins), Red Bull Racing
Championship: P5 Charles Leclerc 215 pts (1 wins), Scuderia Ferrari
Championship: P6 Lando Norris 201 pts (2 wins), McLaren Formula 1 Team

Constructors: P1 Mercedes Formula 1 Team 578 pts
Constructors: P2 Scuderia Ferrari 444 pts
Constructors: P3 McLaren Formula 1 Team 339 pts
Constructors: P4 Red Bull Racing 332 pts

Recent races

Last race: Gran Premio de España won by Andrea Kimi Antonelli from P2 on the grid; podium ANT, VER, NOR
Last race: Azerbaijan Grand Prix won by George Russell from P1 on the grid; podium RUS, VER, HAD
Last race: Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia won by Max Verstappen from P1 on the grid; podium VER, ANT, HAM
Last race: Singapore Grand Prix won by Max Verstappen from P1 on the grid; podium VER, LEC, ANT

Track record

Season to date on this model: winner picked correctly 12 of 17 races once the grid was known and 4 of 17 before qualifying (17 settled; earlier rounds back-tested, not live picks). On 2025 the grid model scored a log-loss of 1.24 against 3.00 for a blind guess among 20 drivers.

How to read these numbers

Driver strength is an exponentially weighted average of race scores over the last two seasons, mixed with the car (team-mate) strength; once qualifying is complete, grid position is added, which is the single strongest predictor of the winner. Probabilities come from simulating the finishing order thousands of times.