Grand Prix de Monaco prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli 42.5% to win after qualifying

Win and podium probabilities

• Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 42.5%, podium 86.8%, points 100%, grid P1
• Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing): win 17.3%, podium 56.9%, points 100%, grid P2
• Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari): win 10.3%, podium 39.4%, points 99.8%, grid P3
• Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari): win 9.1%, podium 34.9%, points 100%, grid P4
• George Russell (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 8.2%, podium 29.7%, points 99.6%, grid P6
• Oscar Piastri (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 4.4%, podium 17%, points 98.3%, grid P7
• Lando Norris (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 3.4%, podium 14%, points 96.5%, grid P8
• Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing): win 2.9%, podium 12.3%, points 96.5%, grid P5
• Pierre Gasly (Alpine F1 Team): win 0.6%, podium 2.6%, points 53.3%, grid P9
• Liam Lawson (RB F1 Team): win 0.5%, podium 2.3%, points 40.9%, grid P10
• Carlos Sainz (Williams Racing): win 0.3%, podium 1%, points 26%, grid P12
• Alex Albon (Williams Racing): win 0.2%, podium 1.1%, points 29.6%, grid P11
• Arvid Lindblad (RB F1 Team): win 0.1%, podium 0.5%, points 9.7%, grid P15
• Nico Hulkenberg (Audi Revolut F1 Team): win 0.1%, podium 0.6%, points 15%, grid P13
• Franco Colapinto (Alpine F1 Team): win 0.1%, podium 0.3%, points 12.8%, grid P14
• Sergio Pérez (Cadillac Formula 1 Team): win 0.1%, podium 0.2%, points 2.9%, grid P18
• Esteban Ocon (Haas F1 Team): win 0%, podium 0%, points 5.3%, grid P17
• Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin F1 Team): win 0%, podium 0.1%, points 1.3%, grid P21
• Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi Revolut F1 Team): win 0%, podium 0.2%, points 6.6%, grid P16
• Oliver Bearman (Haas F1 Team): win 0%, podium 0.1%, points 3.3%, grid P19
• Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac Formula 1 Team): win 0%, podium 0.2%, points 1.8%, grid P20
• Lance Stroll (Aston Martin F1 Team): win 0%, podium 0.1%, points 1.2%, grid P22

Result

• P1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes Formula 1 Team) from P1
• P2 Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari) from P3
• P3 Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing) from P5
• P4 Oscar Piastri (McLaren Formula 1 Team) from P7
• P5 Liam Lawson (RB F1 Team) from P10
• P6 Arvid Lindblad (RB F1 Team) from P15
• P7 Pierre Gasly (Alpine F1 Team) from P9
• P8 Alex Albon (Williams Racing) from P11
• P9 Esteban Ocon (Haas F1 Team) from P17
• P10 Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin F1 Team) from P21