Botafogo vs Chapecoense prediction: Botafogo to win 2-0 as model gives 81.7% chance
Brasileirao sees Botafogo face Chapecoense at Joao Havelange Stadium. The model makes Botafogo the favourite, assigning a strong 81.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Botafogo 81.7%, draw 13.2%, Chapecoense 5.1%.
Botafogo have generated 1.27 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Chapecoense average 0.96 scored (0.72x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.10 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.2 for Botafogo and 0.9 for Chapecoense.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 61.3%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 2-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Botafogo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 81.7% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.