Bahia vs Flamengo prediction: Flamengo to win 0-1 as model gives 54.4% chance
Brasileirao sees Bahia face Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova. The model makes Flamengo the favourite, assigning a slight 54.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bahia 19.9%, draw 25.7%, Flamengo 54.4%.
Bahia have generated 1.42 goals per game (1.06x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.17 conceded per game. Flamengo average 1.95 scored (1.46x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.79 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Bahia and 1.5 for Flamengo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Flamengo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54.4% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.