Atlético-MG vs Coritiba prediction: Atlético-MG to win 2-0 as model gives 72.3% chance
Brasileirao sees Atlético-MG face Coritiba at Arena MRV. The model makes Atlético-MG the favourite, assigning a clear 72.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlético-MG 72.3%, draw 18.1%, Coritiba 9.6%.
Atlético-MG have generated 1.41 goals per game (1.06x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.10 conceded per game. Coritiba average 1.24 scored (0.93x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.86 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.2 for Atlético-MG and 0.9 for Coritiba.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.3%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-1, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Atlético-MG to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 72.3% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.