Mirassol vs Internacional prediction: Mirassol to win 1-0 as model gives 46.5% chance
Brasileirao sees Mirassol face Internacional at Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia. The model makes Mirassol the favourite, assigning a slight 46.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Mirassol 46.5%, draw 27.1%, Internacional 26.4%.
Mirassol have generated 1.19 goals per game (0.90x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.37 conceded per game. Internacional average 1.13 scored (0.86x average) and are a steady defence at 1.35 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Mirassol and 1.1 for Internacional.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 56.5%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mirassol to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.