Grêmio vs Cruzeiro prediction: Cruzeiro to win 1-2 as model gives 49% chance
Brasileirao sees Grêmio face Cruzeiro at Arena do Grêmio. The model makes Cruzeiro the favourite, assigning a slight 49% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Grêmio 23.9%, draw 27.1%, Cruzeiro 49%.
Grêmio have generated 1.07 goals per game (0.80x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Cruzeiro average 1.65 scored (1.23x average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Grêmio and 1.5 for Cruzeiro.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cruzeiro to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.