Fluminense vs Santos prediction: Fluminense to win 2-1 as model gives 50.3% chance
Brasileirao sees Fluminense face Santos at Estadio do Maracana. The model makes Fluminense the favourite, assigning a slight 50.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fluminense 50.3%, draw 26.5%, Santos 23.2%.
Fluminense have generated 1.61 goals per game (1.20x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.16 conceded per game. Santos average 1.57 scored (1.18x average) and are a steady defence at 1.40 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Fluminense and 1.2 for Santos.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.2%), and both teams are likely to score (61.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Fluminense to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.3% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Philippe Coutinho reveals Neymar's 'important role' in Santos transfer — Philippe Coutinho has said his former Brazil teammate Neymar played a "very important role" in him signing for Santos. (ESPN, 2026-09-15)
- Former Liverpool, Barcelona midfielder Philippe Coutinho set to join Neymar at Santos — Philippe Coutinho is set to play for Santos for the remainder of the year. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- Neymar set to be sidelined until October with muscular injury — Neymar is expected to be sidelined for at least a month with a muscular injury. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- Neymar slams state of Palmeiras pitch after injury but Brazilian club fire back at Santos star — Neymar criticised the state of the Vila Belmiro pitch after sustaining a right thigh injury during Wednesday's Brazilian Cup game against Palmeiras. (ESPN, 2026-09-04)
- Santos' Neymar in tears after going off at half-time with another injury — Neymar had to be replaced at half-time of Santos' goalless draw against Palmeiras in Wednesday's Brazilian Cup game with a suspected right thigh injury. (ESPN, 2026-09-03)
- Neymar says Santos 'no longer a powerhouse' in Brazil — Neymar is drawing little comfort from Santos' 1-0 league win over Corinthians, fearing the club could end up again in a battle against relegation. (ESPN, 2026-08-31)