Chapecoense vs Fluminense prediction: Fluminense to win 0-2 as model gives 61.2% chance
Brasileirao sees Chapecoense face Fluminense at Arena Condá. The model makes Fluminense the favourite, assigning a clear 61.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Chapecoense 15.4%, draw 23.4%, Fluminense 61.2%.
Chapecoense have generated 0.90 goals per game (0.68x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.03 conceded per game. Fluminense average 1.57 scored (1.19x average) and are a steady defence at 1.21 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Chapecoense and 2.2 for Fluminense.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 59.5%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 1-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Fluminense to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 61.2% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.