Coritiba vs Grêmio prediction: Coritiba to win 2-1 as model gives 40.2% chance
Brasileirao sees Coritiba face Grêmio at Couto Pereira. The model makes Coritiba the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Coritiba 40.2%, draw 27.7%, Grêmio 32.1%.
Coritiba have generated 1.16 goals per game (0.88x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. Grêmio average 1.13 scored (0.85x average) and are a steady defence at 1.49 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Coritiba and 1.4 for Grêmio.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Coritiba to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.2% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.