Santos vs Bahia prediction: Santos to win 2-1 as model gives 52.6% chance
Brasileirao sees Santos face Bahia at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). The model makes Santos the favourite, assigning a slight 52.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Santos 52.6%, draw 24.7%, Bahia 22.7%.
Santos have generated 1.60 goals per game (1.20x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.38 conceded per game. Bahia average 1.34 scored (1.01x average) and are a steady defence at 1.27 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Santos and 1.3 for Bahia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.1%), and both teams are likely to score (60%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Santos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.6% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Philippe Coutinho reveals Neymar's 'important role' in Santos transfer — Philippe Coutinho has said his former Brazil teammate Neymar played a "very important role" in him signing for Santos. (ESPN, 2026-09-15)
- Former Liverpool, Barcelona midfielder Philippe Coutinho set to join Neymar at Santos — Philippe Coutinho is set to play for Santos for the remainder of the year. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- Neymar set to be sidelined until October with muscular injury — Neymar is expected to be sidelined for at least a month with a muscular injury. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- Neymar slams state of Palmeiras pitch after injury but Brazilian club fire back at Santos star — Neymar criticised the state of the Vila Belmiro pitch after sustaining a right thigh injury during Wednesday's Brazilian Cup game against Palmeiras. (ESPN, 2026-09-04)
- Santos' Neymar in tears after going off at half-time with another injury — Neymar had to be replaced at half-time of Santos' goalless draw against Palmeiras in Wednesday's Brazilian Cup game with a suspected right thigh injury. (ESPN, 2026-09-03)
- Neymar says Santos 'no longer a powerhouse' in Brazil — Neymar is drawing little comfort from Santos' 1-0 league win over Corinthians, fearing the club could end up again in a battle against relegation. (ESPN, 2026-08-31)