Mirassol vs São Paulo prediction: Mirassol to win 1-0 as model gives 42.6% chance
Brasileirao sees Mirassol face São Paulo at Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia. The model makes Mirassol the favourite, assigning a narrow 42.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Mirassol 42.6%, draw 27.8%, São Paulo 29.6%.
Mirassol have generated 1.24 goals per game (0.93x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.29 conceded per game. São Paulo average 1.09 scored (0.82x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.18 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Mirassol and 1 for São Paulo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 62.4%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (45.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mirassol to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 42.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.