Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro prediction: Cruzeiro to win 1-2 as model gives 38% chance
Brasileirao sees Atlético-MG face Cruzeiro at Arena MRV. The model makes Cruzeiro the favourite, assigning a narrow 38% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlético-MG 33.9%, draw 28.1%, Cruzeiro 38%.
Atlético-MG have generated 1.43 goals per game (1.08x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.15 conceded per game. Cruzeiro average 1.74 scored (1.31x average) and are a steady defence at 1.30 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Atlético-MG and 1.4 for Cruzeiro.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.1%), and both teams are likely to score (60.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cruzeiro to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.