Santos vs Palmeiras prediction: Palmeiras to win 0-1 as model gives 45% chance
Brasileirao sees Santos face Palmeiras at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). The model makes Palmeiras the favourite, assigning a slight 45% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Santos 29.6%, draw 25.4%, Palmeiras 45%.
Santos have generated 1.56 goals per game (1.18x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.36 conceded per game. Palmeiras average 1.77 scored (1.33x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.64 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Santos and 1.6 for Palmeiras.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 55%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Palmeiras to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Depay misses late penalty, Estudiantes advance to Libertadores semis after 17 years — Estudiantes and Palmeiras advanced to the Copa Libertadores semifinals following dramatic quarterfinal ties against Corinthians and Liga de Quito. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)
- Philippe Coutinho reveals Neymar's 'important role' in Santos transfer — Philippe Coutinho has said his former Brazil teammate Neymar played a "very important role" in him signing for Santos. (ESPN, 2026-09-15)
- Former Liverpool, Barcelona midfielder Philippe Coutinho set to join Neymar at Santos — Philippe Coutinho is set to play for Santos for the remainder of the year. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- Neymar set to be sidelined until October with muscular injury — Neymar is expected to be sidelined for at least a month with a muscular injury. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- Neymar slams state of Palmeiras pitch after injury but Brazilian club fire back at Santos star — Neymar criticised the state of the Vila Belmiro pitch after sustaining a right thigh injury during Wednesday's Brazilian Cup game against Palmeiras. (ESPN, 2026-09-04)
- Inter Miami signs Riquelme from Palmeiras through 2030 — Inter Miami has signed Riquelme Fillipi from Brazilian team Palmeiras through the conclusion of the 2029-30 MLS season, with an extension option for the 2030-31 season. (ESPN, 2026-09-03)