Coritiba vs Vitória prediction: Coritiba to win 1-0 as model gives 38.1% chance
Brasileirao sees Coritiba face Vitória at Couto Pereira. The model makes Coritiba the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Coritiba 38.1%, draw 27.5%, Vitória 34.4%.
Coritiba have generated 1.08 goals per game (0.81x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.75 conceded per game. Vitória average 1.08 scored (0.81x average) and are a steady defence at 1.38 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Coritiba and 1.3 for Vitória.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Coritiba to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.