Bahia vs São Paulo prediction: Bahia to win 1-0 as model gives 50.8% chance
Brasileirao sees Bahia face São Paulo at Arena Fonte Nova. The model makes Bahia the favourite, assigning a slight 50.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bahia 50.8%, draw 25.7%, São Paulo 23.5%.
Bahia have generated 1.32 goals per game (1.00x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.26 conceded per game. São Paulo average 1.09 scored (0.82x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.17 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Bahia and 0.9 for São Paulo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 61%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (45.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bahia to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.8% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.