Chapecoense vs Mirassol prediction: Mirassol to win 0-1 as model gives 55.1% chance
Brasileirao sees Chapecoense face Mirassol at Arena Condá. The model makes Mirassol the favourite, assigning a slight 55.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Chapecoense 18.8%, draw 26.1%, Mirassol 55.1%.
Chapecoense have generated 0.94 goals per game (0.71x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.10 conceded per game. Mirassol average 1.16 scored (0.87x average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Chapecoense and 1.7 for Mirassol.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mirassol to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.