Atlético Tucumán vs Rosario Central prediction: Rosario Central to win 0-1 as model gives 50.3% chance
Liga Profesional sees Atlético Tucumán face Rosario Central at Monumental Presidente José Fierro. The model makes Rosario Central the favourite, assigning a slight 50.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlético Tucumán 23.6%, draw 26.1%, Rosario Central 50.3%.
Atlético Tucumán have generated 0.90 goals per game (0.82x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.06 conceded per game. Rosario Central average 1.42 scored (1.29x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.80 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Atlético Tucumán and 1.2 for Rosario Central.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 68.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 38.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Rosario Central to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.3% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Ángel Di María receives ovation from Rosario Central fans during tribute to Lionel Messi — Ángel Di María received an impromptu ovation from Rosario Central fans during the one-minute tribute to his former teammate Lionel Messi. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)