Banfield vs Argentinos Juniors prediction: Argentinos Juniors to win 0-1 as model gives 56.2% chance
Liga Profesional sees Banfield face Argentinos Juniors at Florencio Solá. The model makes Argentinos Juniors the favourite, assigning a slight 56.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Banfield 17.5%, draw 26.3%, Argentinos Juniors 56.2%.
Banfield have generated 1.14 goals per game (1.04x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.40 conceded per game. Argentinos Juniors average 1.23 scored (1.12x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.85 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Banfield and 1.4 for Argentinos Juniors.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Argentinos Juniors to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.2% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.