Estudiantes de La Plata vs San Lorenzo prediction: Estudiantes de La Plata to win 1-0 as model gives 48.2% chance
Liga Profesional sees Estudiantes de La Plata face San Lorenzo at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi. The model makes Estudiantes de La Plata the favourite, assigning a slight 48.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Estudiantes de La Plata 48.2%, draw 27.9%, San Lorenzo 23.9%.
Estudiantes de La Plata have generated 1.22 goals per game (1.11x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.91 conceded per game. San Lorenzo average 0.63 scored (0.57x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.94 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Estudiantes de La Plata and 0.5 for San Lorenzo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 77.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 26.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 0-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Estudiantes de La Plata to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.2% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Can Argentina's Estudiantes stop Brazil's Libertadores juggernaut? — Brazilian clubs have won the last seven Copa Libertadores titles, but Argentina's Estudiantes de La Plata are determined to keep that streak from reaching eight. (ESPN, 2026-10-14)