Estudiantes de Río Cuarto vs Aldosivi prediction: Aldosivi to win 0-1 as model gives 45.3% chance
Liga Profesional sees Estudiantes de Río Cuarto face Aldosivi at Ciudad de Río Cuarto Antonio Candini. The model makes Aldosivi the favourite, assigning a slight 45.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 26.4%, draw 28.3%, Aldosivi 45.3%.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto have generated 0.45 goals per game (0.41x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.41 conceded per game. Aldosivi average 0.91 scored (0.83x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto and 1.1 for Aldosivi.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 74.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 34.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Aldosivi to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.3% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.