Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto (Córdoba) prediction: Instituto (Córdoba) narrow favourites at 44.4%
Liga Profesional sees Defensa y Justicia face Instituto (Córdoba) at Norberto Tomaghello. The model makes Instituto (Córdoba) the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Defensa y Justicia 25.8%, draw 29.7%, Instituto (Córdoba) 44.4%.
Defensa y Justicia have generated 1.36 goals per game (1.24x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Instituto (Córdoba) average 1.42 scored (1.29x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.96 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Defensa y Justicia and 1.3 for Instituto (Córdoba).
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.9%).
Verdict: Instituto (Córdoba) to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.4% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.