Unión (Santa Fe) vs Estudiantes de La Plata prediction: Estudiantes de La Plata to win 1-2 as model gives 38.6% chance
Liga Profesional sees Unión (Santa Fe) face Estudiantes de La Plata at 15 de Abril. The model makes Estudiantes de La Plata the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Unión (Santa Fe) 33.9%, draw 27.5%, Estudiantes de La Plata 38.6%.
Unión (Santa Fe) have generated 1.33 goals per game (1.21x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Estudiantes de La Plata average 1.21 scored (1.10x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.97 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Unión (Santa Fe) and 1.5 for Estudiantes de La Plata.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Estudiantes de La Plata to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Can Argentina's Estudiantes stop Brazil's Libertadores juggernaut? — Brazilian clubs have won the last seven Copa Libertadores titles, but Argentina's Estudiantes de La Plata are determined to keep that streak from reaching eight. (ESPN, 2026-10-14)