San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys prediction: San Lorenzo to win 1-0 as model gives 43.5% chance
Liga Profesional sees San Lorenzo face Newell's Old Boys at Estadio Pedro Bidegain. The model makes San Lorenzo the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is San Lorenzo 43.5%, draw 27%, Newell's Old Boys 29.5%.
San Lorenzo have generated 0.71 goals per game (0.65x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.94 conceded per game. Newell's Old Boys average 0.96 scored (0.87x average) and are a steady defence at 1.03 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for San Lorenzo and 0.7 for Newell's Old Boys.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 81.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 28.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: San Lorenzo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.