Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia prediction: Argentinos Juniors to win 2-0 as model gives 49.8% chance
Liga Profesional sees Argentinos Juniors face Independiente Rivadavia at Diego Armando Maradona. The model makes Argentinos Juniors the favourite, assigning a slight 49.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Argentinos Juniors 49.8%, draw 27.3%, Independiente Rivadavia 22.9%.
Argentinos Juniors have generated 1.22 goals per game (1.11x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.80 conceded per game. Independiente Rivadavia average 1.41 scored (1.28x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Argentinos Juniors and 0.9 for Independiente Rivadavia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Argentinos Juniors to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.8% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.