Atlético Tucumán vs Argentinos Juniors prediction: Argentinos Juniors to win 0-1 as model gives 47% chance
Liga Profesional sees Atlético Tucumán face Argentinos Juniors at Monumental Presidente José Fierro. The model makes Argentinos Juniors the favourite, assigning a slight 47% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlético Tucumán 26.6%, draw 26.3%, Argentinos Juniors 47%.
Atlético Tucumán have generated 0.97 goals per game (0.88x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.11 conceded per game. Argentinos Juniors average 1.21 scored (1.10x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.75 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Atlético Tucumán and 1.1 for Argentinos Juniors.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 72.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 36.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Argentinos Juniors to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.