Newell's Old Boys vs Unión (Santa Fe) prediction: Newell's Old Boys to win 1-0 as model gives 48.5% chance
Liga Profesional sees Newell's Old Boys face Unión (Santa Fe) at Marcelo Bielsa. The model makes Newell's Old Boys the favourite, assigning a slight 48.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Newell's Old Boys 48.5%, draw 25.6%, Unión (Santa Fe) 25.9%.
Newell's Old Boys have generated 0.90 goals per game (0.82x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.96 conceded per game. Unión (Santa Fe) average 1.43 scored (1.30x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Newell's Old Boys and 1.1 for Unión (Santa Fe).
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Newell's Old Boys to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.