Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF prediction: Västerås SK to win 2-1 as model gives 37.6% chance
Allsvenskan sees Västerås SK face Mjällby AIF at Hitachi Energy Arena. The model makes Västerås SK the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Västerås SK 37.6%, draw 29.5%, Mjällby AIF 32.9%.
Västerås SK have generated 1.42 goals per game (0.99x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.39 conceded per game. Mjällby AIF average 1.20 scored (0.84x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.69 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Västerås SK and 1.1 for Mjällby AIF.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.1%), and both teams are likely to score (56.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Västerås SK to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.6% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.