Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF prediction: Hammarby IF to win 0-2 as model gives 74% chance
Allsvenskan sees Mjällby AIF face Hammarby IF at Strandvallen. The model makes Hammarby IF the favourite, assigning a clear 74% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Mjällby AIF 5.7%, draw 20.3%, Hammarby IF 74%.
Mjällby AIF have generated 1.12 goals per game (0.79x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.64 conceded per game. Hammarby IF average 1.96 scored (1.37x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.83 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Mjällby AIF and 2 for Hammarby IF.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (46%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Hammarby IF to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 74% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.