AIK vs IF Elfsborg result: 2-2 as IF Elfsborg were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: AIK 2-2 IF Elfsborg. We tipped IF Elfsborg at 56.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Allsvenskan sees AIK face IF Elfsborg at Friends Arena. The model makes IF Elfsborg the favourite, assigning a slight 56.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AIK 16.1%, draw 27.8%, IF Elfsborg 56.1%.
AIK have generated 1.70 goals per game (1.20x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. IF Elfsborg average 1.46 scored (1.03x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.96 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for AIK and 1.7 for IF Elfsborg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.7%), and both teams are likely to score (60.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: IF Elfsborg to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.1% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.