IFK Göteborg vs Djurgården result: 1-1 as Djurgården were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: IFK Göteborg 1-1 Djurgården. We tipped Djurgården at 56.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Allsvenskan sees IFK Göteborg face Djurgården at Gamla Ullevi. The model makes Djurgården the favourite, assigning a slight 56.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is IFK Göteborg 17.9%, draw 25.5%, Djurgården 56.6%.
IFK Göteborg have generated 1.46 goals per game (1.03x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.49 conceded per game. Djurgården average 2.04 scored (1.43x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.84 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for IFK Göteborg and 1.9 for Djurgården.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 1-1, 0-2, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Djurgården to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.6% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.