Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK result: 0-3 as Västerås SK were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Degerfors IF 0-3 Västerås SK. We tipped Västerås SK at 47.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Allsvenskan sees Degerfors IF face Västerås SK at Stora Valla. The model makes Västerås SK the favourite, assigning a slight 47.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Degerfors IF 26.6%, draw 25.9%, Västerås SK 47.5%.
Degerfors IF have generated 0.80 goals per game (0.56x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.68 conceded per game. Västerås SK average 1.36 scored (0.95x average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Degerfors IF and 1.4 for Västerås SK.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 60.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Västerås SK to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.5% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.