Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF prediction: Mjällby AIF to win 1-2 as model gives 47% chance
Allsvenskan sees Örgryte IS face Mjällby AIF at Gamla Ullevi. The model makes Mjällby AIF the favourite, assigning a slight 47% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Örgryte IS 24.3%, draw 28.8%, Mjällby AIF 47%.
Örgryte IS have generated 1.28 goals per game (0.91x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.13 conceded per game. Mjällby AIF average 1.05 scored (0.74x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Örgryte IS and 1.4 for Mjällby AIF.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.3%), and both teams are likely to score (63.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mjällby AIF to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.