IK Start vs Sandefjord prediction: IK Start narrow favourites at 42.8%
Eliteserien sees IK Start face Sandefjord at Sparebanken Sor Arena. The model makes IK Start the favourite, assigning a narrow 42.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is IK Start 42.8%, draw 24.5%, Sandefjord 32.7%.
IK Start have generated 1.14 goals per game (0.70x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.50 conceded per game. Sandefjord average 1.11 scored (0.68x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.33 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for IK Start and 1.5 for Sandefjord.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52%).
Verdict: IK Start to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 42.8% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.