IK Start vs Lillestrom prediction: Lillestrom to win 1-2 as model gives 47.6% chance
Eliteserien sees IK Start face Lillestrom at Sparebanken Sor Arena. The model makes Lillestrom the favourite, assigning a slight 47.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is IK Start 26.3%, draw 26.1%, Lillestrom 47.6%.
IK Start have generated 1.13 goals per game (0.67x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.30 conceded per game. Lillestrom average 1.48 scored (0.88x average) and are a steady defence at 1.51 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for IK Start and 1.8 for Lillestrom.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.1%), and both teams are likely to score (58.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Lillestrom to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.