Universidad Católica vs Audax Italiano prediction: Universidad Católica to win 2-0 as model gives 56.6% chance
Primera Division sees Universidad Católica face Audax Italiano at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. The model makes Universidad Católica the favourite, assigning a slight 56.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Universidad Católica 56.6%, draw 24.5%, Audax Italiano 18.9%.
Universidad Católica have generated 2.02 goals per game (1.37x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Audax Italiano average 1.16 scored (0.79x average) and are a steady defence at 1.33 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Universidad Católica and 0.9 for Audax Italiano.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.6%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Universidad Católica to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.6% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.