O'Higgins vs Cobresal prediction: O'Higgins to win 2-1 as model gives 68.1% chance
Primera Division sees O'Higgins face Cobresal at Estadio El Teniente. The model makes O'Higgins the favourite, assigning a clear 68.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is O'Higgins 68.1%, draw 18.5%, Cobresal 13.4%.
O'Higgins have generated 1.13 goals per game (0.77x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.58 conceded per game. Cobresal average 1.45 scored (0.98x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.79 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for O'Higgins and 1.4 for Cobresal.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.5%), and both teams are likely to score (60.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: O'Higgins to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 68.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.