Ñublense vs Coquimbo Unido prediction: Coquimbo Unido to win 1-2 as model gives 47.4% chance
Primera Division sees Ñublense face Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Municipal Oyarzún Arenas. The model makes Coquimbo Unido the favourite, assigning a slight 47.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Ñublense 26%, draw 26.6%, Coquimbo Unido 47.4%.
Ñublense have generated 1.11 goals per game (0.76x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.82 conceded per game. Coquimbo Unido average 1.64 scored (1.11x average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Ñublense and 1.8 for Coquimbo Unido.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 58.6%), and both teams are likely to score (60.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Coquimbo Unido to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.