Deportes Limache vs Audax Italiano prediction: Deportes Limache to win 1-0 as model gives 43.7% chance
Primera Division sees Deportes Limache face Audax Italiano at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán. The model makes Deportes Limache the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Deportes Limache 43.7%, draw 27.3%, Audax Italiano 28.9%.
Deportes Limache have generated 1.64 goals per game (1.14x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Audax Italiano average 1.14 scored (0.79x average) and are a steady defence at 1.30 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Deportes Limache and 1 for Audax Italiano.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportes Limache to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.7% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.