Coquimbo Unido vs Unión La Calera prediction: Coquimbo Unido to win 2-0 as model gives 63% chance
Primera Division sees Coquimbo Unido face Unión La Calera at Estadio Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. The model makes Coquimbo Unido the favourite, assigning a clear 63% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Coquimbo Unido 63%, draw 22.9%, Unión La Calera 14.1%.
Coquimbo Unido have generated 1.59 goals per game (1.09x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.48 conceded per game. Unión La Calera average 0.99 scored (0.68x average) and are a steady defence at 1.51 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.9 for Unión La Calera.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Coquimbo Unido to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 63% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.