Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears prediction: Atlanta Falcons narrow favourites at 49%
NFL sees Atlanta Falcons face Chicago Bears at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The model makes Atlanta Falcons the favourite, assigning a slight 49% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlanta Falcons 49%, draw 6%, Chicago Bears 45%.
Form guides this call: Atlanta Falcons are winning at a 47% clip against Chicago Bears's 65%, before home advantage is applied. The projected line is Atlanta Falcons 1.4 – 1.3 Chicago Bears, based on each team's scoring and concession averages this season blended with prior form.
Verdict: Atlanta Falcons to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Falcons QB Michael Penix on track to start vs. Bears if no setbacks, coach says — Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will start Sunday against the Bears despite a rib injury, as long as there are no setbacks during the week. (ESPN, 2026-10-14)
- Revisiting 2026 preseason bold predictions for 32 NFL teams: Which are on track? — In the preseason, we made bold predictions for every NFL team, from Jordan Love's MVP case to Isaiah Likely's catch total. Which ones are on track? Which seem unlikely? (ESPN, 2026-10-14)
- Bears DE Montez Sweat suspended two games for violating NFL's PED policy — The NFL has issued a two-game suspension to Bears defensive end Montez Sweat for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)
- 2026 NFL Power Rankings: How all 32 teams stack up for Week 6 — How does every NFL team stack up heading into Week 6? We made our 1-32 list and picked the biggest defensive problem for every team. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)
- Seven things Solak thinks entering NFL Week 6: Time for Mendoza? Cowboys issues? — Get ready for Week 6 with takes on two QB situations, two teams with defensive issues, two coaches on the hot seat and more. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)
- 2027 NFL draft order projections for Round 1, chances for top pick, more — ESPN's Football Power Index projects the 2027 NFL draft order for Round 1, complete with each team's chances to pick in the top five, in the top 10 and at No. 1. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)