PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag prediction: PEC Zwolle to win 2-1 as model gives 39.1% chance
Eredivisie sees PEC Zwolle face ADO Den Haag at MAC³PARK Stadion. The model makes PEC Zwolle the favourite, assigning a narrow 39.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is PEC Zwolle 39.1%, draw 27.2%, ADO Den Haag 33.7%.
PEC Zwolle have generated 1.21 goals per game (0.69x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.16 conceded per game. ADO Den Haag average 1.38 scored (0.79x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.25 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for PEC Zwolle and 1.5 for ADO Den Haag.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.5%), and both teams are likely to score (65.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: PEC Zwolle to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 39.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.