PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II prediction: PSV Eindhoven to win 3-0 as model gives 84.4% chance
Eredivisie sees PSV Eindhoven face Willem II at Philips Stadion. The model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite, assigning a strong 84.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is PSV Eindhoven 84.4%, draw 12.4%, Willem II 3.2%.
PSV Eindhoven have generated 2.81 goals per game (1.60x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Willem II average 1.01 scored (0.58x average) and are a leaky defence at 3.18 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.2 for PSV Eindhoven and 0.7 for Willem II.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 74.3%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-0, with 3-0, 2-0, 4-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 84.4% confidence. A 3-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- USMNT's Ricardo Pepi calls injury minor setback, says recovery started — United States men's national team and PSV Eindhoven striker Ricardo Pepi on Tuesday called his injury a "minor setback," and said he has already started his recovery to return to action with his club. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- Transfer rumors, news: Liverpool targeting former Bayern Munich midfielder — PSV Eindhoven's Paul Wanner has emerged as a Liverpool target. Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)
- USMNT's Dest scores 1st UCL goal in 6 years to earn draw for PSV — Sergiño Dest scored his first UEFA Champions League goal in six years to give PSV Eindhoven a 1-1 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk. (ESPN, 2026-09-10)
- Man United loan teen striker Chido Obi to Dutch side Willem II — Manchester United striker Chido Obi has joined Dutch side Willem II on a season-long loan deal (ESPN, 2026-09-02)